Impacts of Russian influence on France's military engagement in the Sahel

Despite decolonisation, France had never ceased to maintain its presence in Africa and to keep a zone of influence in the continent, in the face of the Soviet Union during the Cold War, then Russia since the 1990s[1]. France is also currently facing increased competition from Turkey and China, in Africa[2]. This rivalry is accelerated by destabilisation and conflict events (coups, jihadism)[3]. One example is Mali, where Russian-trained leaders are reportedly negotiating the arrival of troops from the Russian group Wagner[4]. If Bamako officially confirms these negotiations, France and its European partners present will suffer severely, for several reasons.

            The establishment of the Wagner group will give more ground to France's rivals[5]. In this case, Russia will increase its already economically and politically important area of influence in Africa[6]. Algeria, one of Moscow's main partners, has closed its airspace to French military aircraft, complicating European anti-jihadist military support in the Sahel under Operation Barkhane [7].

            In place since 2014, bringing together more than 5,000 French soldiers accompanied by Danish and Estonian troops, the operation has not helped the government in Bamako regain control of the jihadist-controlled north of the country[8]. Moreover, in the face of this failure, French President Macron has decided to reduce the number of soldiers stationed in Mali[9]. However, African leaders, including Malians, will continue to seek military support from other countries, such as Turkey, China and even Russia[10]. France views this change in partnership negatively, and threatens to disengage. However, it contributes to an increased military role in Africa for France's rivals, which will not be without consequences (increased presence of the Wagner group in Africa).

            In the event of inaction or downsizing in the Sahel against the Wagner group, Paris risks losing a key ally (the United States) in ensuring stability and security in the Sahel[11]. Moreover, other countries involved in Operation Barkhane, such as Estonia, are reportedly threatening to withdraw from Mali[12]. Despite possible options such as transferring troops to neighbouring Niger, the West fears a domino effect that could weaken Western troops in Africa[13].

            In the Central African Republic, France had already frozen its budgetary aid and military cooperation because of Russian military involvement in Bangui[14]. Despite the warnings of the French Minister of the Armed Forces Florence Parly towards Mali in case of official involvement of the Wagner group in the country (losing its international support) and the reassuring words on the French military presence in the Sahel at all costs[15]Russian influence, now growing, will contribute to a geopolitical weakening of France[16]. It may also aggravate tensions between France and its former colonies in Africa[17].

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