BigWay, Author at Bernd Braun

Two weeks earlier, in Washington DC, President Joe Biden, along with his British and Australian counterparts Boris Johnson and Scott Morrison, presented the AUKUS trilateral defence partnership "in security, cyber defence, artificial intelligence and quantum technologies to counter China's influence".[1]. In addition to "binding America's current allies and partners together" in the Atlantic and Pacific (Joe Biden), it is a matter of "working together to preserve security and stability in the Indo-Pacific", as well as "helping Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines" (Boris Johnson)[2]. For his part, Scott Morrison will specify where the submarines will be built (Adelaide, Australia) in collaboration with the British and the Americans, and will point out that "Australia is not seeking to acquire nuclear weapons or a civilian nuclear capability".[3].

Like China, France expressed its anger at the announcement of this partnership, and its discontent spread like wildfire across Europe. Indeed, in 2016, Australia had signed a contract with the French naval industry to acquire 12 conventionally powered submarines[4]. The announcement of the AUKUS partnership caused the cancellation of the Australian contract with France, resulting in a loss of 56 billion euros for France.[5]. Several European countries were already expressing concern about their place as US allies in NATO, working on deeper strategic autonomy[6]. France was keen to recall its role and presence in the Indo-Pacific, notably with President Biden and Australian Prime Minister Morrison, and even with their partners such as Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi[7].

Even the European Union expressed concern, especially as the announcement of the creation of the AUKUS came on the eve of the presentation of the European Union's (EU) Indo-Pacific Strategy in Brussels[8].

However, a close look at the content and context of the AUKUS partnership shows that it is merely a continuation of the relationship between the US, Britain and Australia. It should be recalled that the three countries are linked by numerous other security and defence agreements, including theFive Eyes"including Canada and New Zealand[9]. In addition, Britain is working to increase its presence in the world, as part of 'Global Britain', and its membership of the AUKUS partnership already shows a geopolitical success for London[10]. The AUKUS partnership was mainly to the detriment of France, which also had a partnership strategy for the Indo-Pacific area (Paris-New Delhi-Canberra axis)[11].

Like the USA, Great Britain and Australia, the European Union remains committed to the Indo-Pacific region, but in the economic field. The European strategy is based on several projects, including free trade agreements with Australia, New Zealand and Indonesia, and partnership agreements with Malaysia and Thailand.[12]. The Europeans also want to establish themselves in the Indo-Pacific through other partnerships, which concern ocean management, digital technology, climate change, as well as research and health[13]. Indeed, the region represents for Europe "12,000 billion euros of annual investment, twice as much as the United States", and is "the European Union's second largest export market".[14]. As Josep Borell points out, while not neglecting the security field, the "European Union has a very important role to play.European strategic autonomy". remains mainly economic[15]. In the field of defence, EU member states remain divided, not least to maintain their vital relationship with the United States[16].

After Latin America and Asia, Russia is moving its pawns to another continent: Africa. Indeed, after a Russia-Africa summit in Sochi in 2019, bringing together 43 African leaders[1]In Sochi, many Russian investments were signed. Traditionally, Russia has exported arms and grain to Africa, but on the occasion of the Sochi summit, it is working to diversify its activities in Africa[2]. To do this, Russia relies on three economic sectors: hydrocarbons, mining and nuclear energy, always in addition to security and armaments[3]. According to the latest figures, in 2018, Russian trade with the continent amounted to $20 billion, which represents an increase of 17.2 % over the trade volume of 2017[4]. Russian exports to Africa have doubled in three years, and now account for 4 % of its total exports, up from 1 % five years ago[5].

Despite this, armaments remain one of Russia's most important exports to Africa[6]. In Mali, in addition to weapons and ammunition, four Russian helicopters of the Mi-171 type were delivered to Bamako, under a military cooperation agreement signed in 2019[7]. Russia is increasingly active where French military troops are present (Sahel, Central African Republic)[8]. To this day, some African leaders call on Russian arms and military aid, as did the Central African and Malian leaders recently[9].

During his speech at the UN, Malian Prime Minister Choguel Kokalla Maïga denounced the "abandonment" of France in the fight against jihadists in Mali, while stressing the need to resort to other partners[10]. After the coup in August 2020, Mali and its leaders want to diversify its military alliances as a free sovereign state[11]. In reaction to the words of the French Minister of the Armed Forces, Florence Parly, who was outraged by Chiaga's speech at the UN (words are "unacceptable" and "properly indecent") [12]Prime Minister Maïga had declared the French military operation a failure Barkhane within the Malian territory, in place since 2012[13]. Mali's leaders see Russia as a potential ally, which explains recent discussions with representatives of the private Russian military group Wagner, which has been present in Africa for years.[14].

According to unnamed sources quoted by Bloomberg, Russian mercenaries were deployed in several African countries, including Sudan, the Central African Republic, Libya, Zimbabwe, Angola, Madagascar, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Mozambique, and even the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)[15]. Operating under different names and structures, such as companies related to gold and diamond mining, as well as military training and cyberwarfare, the Wagner Group had numerous subsidiaries that were deployed in Libya, South Africa, Sudan and Mozambique to "train local armies, protect high-level personalities, fight rebel and terrorist groups, in addition to protecting diamond, gold and uranium mines".[16]. In exchange for these services, Wagner's branches would have obtained exclusive privileges, contracts and licenses to provide weapons, technology and military services, but also to exploit natural resources in these countries[17]. The Wagner Group is also known to have contributed to the protection of the Central African President Touadéra and to the training of soldiers in the country, which is in the grip of a civil war[18].

Currently, negotiations to host the Wagner group in Mali are causing concern among Europeans[19]The European Union has been working on the development of a European Union-wide strategy for the protection of the environment, including the French, Germans and Estonians, who are militarily engaged in Mali in the framework of the Operation Barkhane[20].

Like China, Russia is working to maintain a zone of influence in Africa, like the Soviet Union during the Cold War[21].

Despite decolonisation, France had never ceased to maintain its presence in Africa and to keep a zone of influence in the continent, in the face of the Soviet Union during the Cold War, then Russia since the 1990s[1]. France is also currently facing increased competition from Turkey and China, in Africa[2]. This rivalry is accelerated by destabilisation and conflict events (coups, jihadism)[3]. One example is Mali, where Russian-trained leaders are reportedly negotiating the arrival of troops from the Russian group Wagner[4]. If Bamako officially confirms these negotiations, France and its European partners present will suffer severely, for several reasons.

The establishment of the Wagner group will give more ground to France's rivals[5]. In this case, Russia will increase its already economically and politically important area of influence in Africa[6]. Algeria, one of Moscow's main partners, has closed its airspace to French military aircraft, complicating European anti-jihadist military support in the Sahel under Operation Barkhane [7].

In place since 2014, bringing together more than 5,000 French soldiers accompanied by Danish and Estonian troops, the operation has not helped the government in Bamako regain control of the jihadist-controlled north of the country[8]. Moreover, in the face of this failure, French President Macron has decided to reduce the number of soldiers stationed in Mali[9]. However, African leaders, including Malians, will continue to seek military support from other countries, such as Turkey, China and even Russia[10]. France views this change in partnership negatively, and threatens to disengage. However, it contributes to an increased military role in Africa for France's rivals, which will not be without consequences (increased presence of the Wagner group in Africa).

In the event of inaction or downsizing in the Sahel against the Wagner group, Paris risks losing a key ally (the United States) in ensuring stability and security in the Sahel[11]. Moreover, other countries involved in Operation Barkhane, such as Estonia, are reportedly threatening to withdraw from Mali[12]. Despite possible options such as transferring troops to neighbouring Niger, the West fears a domino effect that could weaken Western troops in Africa[13].

In the Central African Republic, France had already frozen its budgetary aid and military cooperation because of Russian military involvement in Bangui[14]. Despite the warnings of the French Minister of the Armed Forces Florence Parly towards Mali in case of official involvement of the Wagner group in the country (losing its international support) and the reassuring words on the French military presence in the Sahel at all costs[15]Russian influence, now growing, will contribute to a geopolitical weakening of France[16]. It may also aggravate tensions between France and its former colonies in Africa[17].