Migration crisis on the Polish-Belarusian border: a new front between Russia and Europe

            After the Balkan route, a new migratory route to Western Europe is becoming a concern: the one from Belarus.

            Since the summer of 2021, Lithuanian, Latvian and Polish border guards have witnessed an ever-increasing influx of migrants crossing their borders illegally[1]. According to the authorities of the three EU member states, the majority of migrants come from the Middle East (Iraq, Syria, Yemen) and sub-Saharan Africa, and arrive in Belarus by plane, either from Moscow or from the Middle East, at prices approaching thousands of dollars, with the help of Belarusian travel agencies and visa-issuing authorities[2].

            European countries denounce these practices as a "hybrid war" orchestrated by Minsk, aimed at destabilising the EU. This is in response to the EU sanctions put in place after the 2020 election protests were suppressed by the police, and the hijacking of the Athens-Vilnius Ryanair flight to Minsk in May 2021[3].

            In order to protect the EU's external borders and contain these migratory flows, Latvia and Lithuania have declared a state of emergency, and begun work on building walls along their borders with Belarus[4]. As regards Poland, in addition to the state of emergency declared in all border municipalities with Belarus, the authorities have reinforced the fences, as well as the police and military presence along the border line (418 km)[5]. Recently, like Latvia and Lithuania, Poland has approved the construction of a wall, which will start in December 2021[6].

            There is also military support from abroad, such as from Great Britain, which sent a team of 10 soldiers to support their colleagues in reconnaissance[7]. Other European countries, such as the Czech Republic and Lithuania, have recently offered assistance to Poland[8].

            Belarus' neighbours have diplomatic means at their disposal to try to alleviate this migration crisis. NATO, the USA and the three Baltic states (Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia) have expressed their support for Poland[9]. Humanitarian aid for migrants remaining on Belarusian territory has been offered by the governments of Poland and the Baltic States[10].

          The migration crisis is also part of a purely geopolitical context.

         Since the disputed 2020 elections, EU-Belarus relations have deteriorated, with the implementation of EU sanctions on Belarusian officials[11]. In response, President Lukashenko had decided to stop arresting migrants seeking to enter Europe via Belarusian territory[12]. At the same time, the Belarusian and Russian military forces had organised several military exercises along the border with Poland and Lithuania, such as ZAPAD[13]. A new surprise exercise took place shortly before the 15-16 November 2021 clashes at the Kuźnica border crossing[14]. Numerous witnesses from the border guards reported the presence of Belarusian or even Russian commandos among the migrants, who were held as civilians[15]. In several border locations, Polish police and military personnel were attacked in a variety of ways: destruction of fences, throwing of projectiles, use of blinding lasers[16]etc.

            Behind the migration crisis, we are witnessing more than ever to disinformation and political and media pressure[17]. The media are becoming increasingly anti-Polish, as demonstrated once again by the case of presenter Azarionok on the national channel CTV, the Belarusian equivalent of the French TF1 or the Belgian RTBF/VRT[18].

            The incidents on the Polish-Belarusian border thus represent not only a migration crisis, but also a new geostrategic front between Russia and Europe.

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