Morocco-Algeria: a new regional arms race

            Since the recognition of the Moroccanity of Western Sahara, in exchange for the re-establishment of diplomatic relations between Morocco and Israel, the official media has again addressed an old regional rivalry: that between Morocco and Algeria[1].

            Indeed, the annexation of Western Sahara by Morocco after the departure of the Spaniards in 1975 led to the advent of the Polisario Front (Spanish abbreviation for Popular Front for the Liberation of Saguia el-Hamra and Rio de Oro), which demanded the independence of this former Spanish colony[2]. However, Algeria had recognised the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR), and this had led to a diplomatic rupture with its Moroccan neighbour from 1976 until 1988[3]. During the same period, from 1975 to 1991, a war broke out between Morocco and the Algerian-backed Polisario Front. It ended with a ceasefire[4].

            Nevertheless, the rivalries between Algeria and Morocco never disappeared and nowadays, their contacts remain generally reduced[5]. First, the land borders have been closed since 1994, then, since the end of August 2021, Algerian airspace has been closed to Moroccan planes, and since September 2021, diplomatic relations have been broken off[6]. Moreover, unlike Morocco, Algeria has never established relations with Israel, and remains one of the most mobilised states in the world for the Palestinian cause[7].

                Secondly, the government in Algiers still hosts the Saharawi refugee camps in the city of Tindouf, as well as the headquarters of the Polisario Front[8]. In November 2020, the abrogation of the ceasefire by the Polisario Front led to a resurgence of tensions in the region: Saharawi exchanges of fire with Moroccan forces and drone strikes that led to the death of three Algerian drivers[9].

            However, behind the Algerian-Moroccan tensions are important political and military struggles for influence[10]. Traditionally, Morocco, as a 'major non-NATO ally' (since 2004), is mainly supplied with Western armaments (France, USA), while Algeria is supplied militarily by Russia and China[11]. In terms of tanks, Algeria has between 1,300 and 2,000 modern tanks of the T72 M1M or AG and T-90SA types, while Morocco has 700 tanks and will reach, with the delivery of the Abrams tank contract, around 1,000 tanks.^[12].

           Concerning air capabilities, Algeria is expected to be the first customer for the new Russian Sukhoi 57 fighter planes "which have never been sold for export before".[13]. Morocco has 73 light fighter/bombers, the most recent of which are the 23 F16s recently acquired. Algeria, for its part, has a modern fleet of 58 Sukhoi 30 MKA multi-role fighters, some 15 MiG29S and some 40 Su24 bombers.[14]. Finally, for the ground-air defence system, Morocco has American Patriot systems, while Algeria has the Russian equivalent with the S-300 system[15].

            More than ever, military spending in both countries is increasing year on year. In 2018 alone, they accounted for 61 % of arms imports into Africa[16].

           According to statistical data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Algeria spent more than $10.33 billion in 2019 ($9.7 in 2020) on arms purchases[17]. According to SIPRI, it is the country that spent the most in Africa (more than a quarter of African spending), followed by Morocco with 3.76 billion dollars (4.8 in 2020)[18]. 

           In Morocco, the 2022 draft finance law foresees a historic increase in the military budget, mainly dedicated to the acquisition of arms and the reinforcement of the Moroccan armed forces' personnel, which should rise from 4.295 billion euros in 2021 to 4.8 billion euros in 2022[19]. For its part, the Algerian Ministry of National Defence will have an overall budget of 1,300 billion dinars, or 9.5 billion dollars (8.35 billion euros).[20]. Compared to previous years, Algeria has increased its military budget by almost 80 billion dinars, the equivalent of $590 million (about '519 million)[21]. 

            Morocco and Algeria continue to maintain the tradition of investing massively in the military domain, with a view to leadership not only in the Maghreb, but also in Africa.

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