US-Iran relations: the political and economic impacts for France and Europe

Introduction

            In order to develop the market in which we wish to establish ourselves - namely new technologies as close as possible to the users - in this society on the move that is Iran, it is necessary to take into account the latest events on an international scale and to take advantage of them when they allow it.    

            From the results of the US elections to the rise of Russian and Asian influence on the world stage, our group needs to know what position to adopt in order to maintain the lead that seems to be its in establishing a certain hegemony of our products on Iranian soil, but also in the idea of making France a country of support for the Iranian government, without harming the treaties and contracts between it and the nations that wish to see Iran on the fringes of the global economy. Consequently, it is a work of meticulous research and a certain diplomacy that interests our study, which could be translated into a question of the following kind: what opportunities can be seized to develop French foreign trade in our field?

I. The election of Mr Trump, the figure of Monroe and Wilson for a new type of American isolationism

A. The President's wishes with regard to Iran

            In his first week in office, the new president strikes the final blow to the Middle East problem; trade with Iran is promised to be forgotten. Such violence could be legitimate in view of Trump's international financial alliances and biases. On the one hand, the oil-producing countries of the Arabian Peninsula remain the US's main supplier of black gold; consequently, the contemporary and religious games that animate relations between these countries, whose powers are Sunni, and Iran, with its Shiite majority. This dissension is the ideal pretext for the presidential administration to move away from the commitments and promises of openness put on the negotiating table by the Obama administration. Such a turnaround is also a hand out to Israel, which, although a country that does not like anyone because it distrusts everything, tolerates certain exchanges with the countries of the Arabian Peninsula - for oil - and which, therefore, abhorred Barack Obama's arrangements with Iran. Persia represents nothing but a potential and powerful enemy for an Israeli people interested in a re-establishment of the Great Ancient Israel. However, if the Persians managed to join all the developed countries in terms of technology, market, finance and military power, the Hebrew will would be ruined because the Iranians already have a force capable of keeping them in check, but above all of invading them if the US were to put an end to the protection it has put in place since 1948 in the region.

B. A disdain for the European Union

            Such opposition to Iran goes hand in hand with a certain unhealthy view of the European Union on the part of the President. Indeed, the various crises through which our continent has passed, notably over the last five years, the near global collapse of the Union's economic, political and social system, offers a spectacle that at first sight is not very engaging for the world. Added to this are the upcoming elections in France and Germany, which promise to be a moral and diplomatic tragedy; like 'America first', many radical political parties have been reinforced in their isolationist intentions just like Trump. However, the point of conflict is not only the desire to protect the American market, but above all the idea that the European Union is weak and fragile in the eyes of the American presidency. The EU is an incomparable market, but its internal dissension, lack of military power and desire for independence from the US dollar are all silly points. The Brexit is a testimony to this weakness of a Europe unable to hold back its most powerful members, unable to protect its borders, unable to see beyond historical prejudices to bring Turkey and Russia within its borders, if not physically, then at least economically.

            This is a second bone of contention between the US and the EU, a second added value to our industrial approach.

C. A pro-Russian US President

            The great revolution that Trump has brought is his attraction to Russia, his willingness to forge strong links between the Russian economy and that of his country. It is a willingness to go beyond past conflicts, to return to the modern world in the Tsarist era, when the US and Russia had no great reason to be in conflict. It is an international warming that makes us forget the Cold War and the oppositions born of the power strategies of the two great ones of this world over the last forty years. Such a rapprochement is a sign to the world that instead of having the USA as the sole guardian of the world balance - a guardian that sows trouble wherever it goes - we will have an unsurpassable economic power allied to the greatest military force of the old continent and Asia. For the economy as well as for global security, this could be a bad thing, as it is understood that Russia, if it were to side with the Americans, would have no other obstacle than the agreements to be reached with the Americans on the modus operandi on a global scale in the fields of finance, military and diplomacy. The end of such a division of power patterns would allow the US to finish off China, Europe, India and allow itself to develop Africa for its own benefit.     

            However, such an approach is tricky because the Russians have deeper and stronger ties with many steps than they do with the US, which still remains the primary international adversary of US hegemonic intentions. The ex-USSR giant's unfailing ardour and inventiveness have kept all American military and social experts on their toes in recent decades. Today, the establishment of such an alliance would be subject to a repositioning of Russia in its engagements with partners such as China, India and Iran for what interests us. A delicate move.

II. What does this mean for France and for our industry?

            In terms of the development of our company, but also in relation to the opportunities for France opened up by such reversals of situation, in the idea of a new link to be woven with Iran, recent events are a real opportunity. Indeed, from a simply diplomatic point of view, France now has free rein in Iran since the United States is going to increase its sanctions against the Persians, but is also going to loosen the grip of the European Union, which the new American presidency is completely discrediting. With some caution, especially with regard to Turkey, the countries of the Arab peninsula and Israel - which France since Charles De Gaulle has respected only out of a desire to be benevolent and responsible in the face of a world that points its finger at it for the Vel-d'Hiv, but also because it suits its business with the United States - the French powers that be, which we are almost certain will fall into the hands of Emmanuel Macron (a great defender of businessmen), will have complete freedom to open the doors of the Iranian Empire and its markets.

            Moreover, if an effective rapprochement between the US and Russia were to take place, our group, whose purpose is to research and develop new technologies - in aviation, transport, mobile and connected technologies - would see a reduction in commercial contracts between the Russians and the Persians, who would feel betrayed; who would certainly feel betrayed because such an alliance between the two old enemies would imply a reneging on the alliances of the former Soviet power with the marginalised of the developed world. Moreover, a US move away from European actions, but especially from its finances and economy, would bring a new air to trade between its members. If the US abandons us, Germany will lose its stick of support, the British their means of influence with the continentals, and France would regain its place as the leading force at the centre of Europe. However, with a conduct worthy of meeting the challenges of tomorrow, the French could help maintain the European Union, strengthen cooperation between companies, while supporting the steps of its industrialists abroad, particularly in Iran.

            The scenario in preparation is not catastrophic, but it calls for sensitivity and a capacity to foresee general movements on the part of the powers around, as well as the markets and other industrialists in our sector. However, an even greater sidelining of Iran on the international scene, a desire to turn it into a new territory of terrorists, is an opportunity for us who, by embodying an outstretched hand, a tolerant and unprejudiced power, will enter the Persian market, into their society without difficulty; granting us from the outset almost all the opportunities for the development of our industry, and the benefits that this represents.

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